Sunday, November 2, 2008

Predictions Part II: US Senate

I expect the Dems to win:
AR - the state GOP really seems to have problems recruiting strong candidates to send to Washington
CO
DE
IA
IL - the state GOP still hasn't seemed to recovered from the self-destruction wrought by its corrupt Governor six years ago
LA - a huge missed opportunity for the GOP
MA
MI
MT
NC - GOP incumbent Libby Dole's 11th-hour ad entirely focusing on one guy associated with the "Godless Americans PAC" holding a fundraiser for her opponent smacks of desperation, especially the way in which the ad's close seems to (falsely) present her Sunday school-teacher opponent as saying "There is no God!" While the merits of the ad could be debated further, the fact that it's been widely condemned in the state press indicates that a risky attempt by a trailing incumbent to shake up the race has only backfired.
NH
NJ
NM
RI
OR - Republican Gordon Smith's incumbency, centrist positions, and support from newspapers and Democrats across the state probably won't be enough for him this time to overcome the Democratic wave in this blue state
SD (another one that could have been a lot closer with a strong Republican candidate)
WV

and the GOP to win:
AL
GA
ID
KY
ME
MN - the largely left-leaning Independence Party candidate may attract enough anti-GOP voters wary of foul-mouthed-comedian-and-pundit-turned-Democratic-politician Al Franken to save incumbent Norm Coleman's political career
MS (x2)
NE - arguably a missed open-seat opportunity for Democrats
KS
OK
SC
TN
TX
WY

So the next Congress should have a Senate breakdown of 58D - 42R (assuming that Lieberman doesn't get expelled from the Democratic caucus).

2 comments:

Misty said...

Maybe wishful thinking...but I'm hoping Lunsford wins in KY--my home state. I think he has a chance.

Thackery said...

You need a sound bite of the McLaughlin group when John McLaughlin (sp?) would say, "PREDICTIONNNNSSSS!" every week.